According to a research report by Haitong Securities, the landing of the US presidential election and Trump's election may have a significant negative impact on crude oil. 1. Geopolitical risk premium may decrease. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict is eased, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil may be reduced; 2. Increase supply. Under the interest rate cut cycle, the implementation of corresponding policies has increased inflationary pressure, and the demand for controlling inflation by increasing crude oil supply has strengthened; 3. Trade frictions may increase, leading to a decrease in global demand; 4. If necessary, pressure may be exerted on oil producing countries to increase production.
